The Role of Economists

Interview with Yuji Genda, Interviewed by Naruhito Cho

1.What is “crisis”?

[Professor Yuji Genda, thank you for taking your time to participate in this interview.] In this book, we are collecting the results of our online discussions on Meridian 180. You are one of the initial members of this project, and we would like to ask for your insights about “crisis.” By way of introduction, we would like to begin by asking you to briefly talk about your background.

I am an academic and I received my Ph.D. in economics in Japan. I have been writing papers and books on labor economics, especially labor issues in Japan such as income inequality, youth unemployment, and job creation.

Since the 2000s, Japanese people began to talk about how “there is no hope.” So I also work on “Hope Studies” (Kibougaku) which focuses on studying societies where hope disappears or emerges.

By starting this original research on “Hope Studies,” I met Hirokazu Miyazaki, Annelise Riles, and many colleagues in Meridian who are also interested in the theme of hope.

The main theme of this book is “crisis.” What does “crisis” mean? Japan experienced a major crisis in 2011 when the Great Tohoku Earthquake and the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster hit the country. Did the meaning of the word “crisis” and the way people understand “crisis” change in Japan through this experience?

When you look up the word “crisis” in a Japanese dictionary, it defines the word as “a dangerous moment or situation where something [critical] might happen.” A famous example of crisis in post-war Japan is the “Oil Crisis” during the early 1970s. During the 1990s and the 2000s, we also often heard the word “financial crisis” being used in Japan.

In my opinion, the word “crisis” in Japan used to have a strong nuance that it is “something external that could not be fully prevented.” The Oil Crisis came from the Middle East, and the financial crisis came from Asia during the 90s and from the United States in 2008. They were all major events that began from somewhere outside of Japan.

However, the Great Tohoku Earthquake in 2011 and the nuclear disaster significantly changed the way Japanese people understand “crisis.” The disaster showed vividly that crisis is not only something that comes from the outside but is also something that could suddenly emerge from within Japan.

The Japanese fiscal economy has also been in crisis since the 2000s, but the Japanese people did not seem to think of it too much before the earthquake. However, after the earthquake, many Japanese people began to seriously think about the existence of our fiscal crisis – the crisis that comes from within. I think this is why the majority of the public began to approve raising the consumption tax.

What about the meaning of “crisis” in economics, particularly in labor economics, your field of research? You introduced the concept of NEET (“Not in Employment, Education, or Training”) to Japan, and you recently published your research on SNEP (“Solitary Non-Employed Persons”). Do the underemployed youth, NEETs, and SNEPs suggest a crisis that Japan is currently facing, or may face in the future? What kind of crisis would that be, and what kind of responses do they require?

When we discuss economic theory, we usually do not use the word “crisis.” The more often used term is “shock,” which means an “unexpected event that suddenly occurs.” Some shocks occur at a national level, while others concentrate on a particular region or industry. Some shocks are temporary, while others are long term. In economics, the important initial step in taking appropriate measures is accurately understanding the nature of the shock.

I have been focusing on youth unemployment in Japan since the 2000s. Unemployment in Japan until the mid-90s was low – it was around 2–3%. However, it began to rise since 1998, and 4-5% became the new standard. This is due to the increasing number of youths who are struggling to find jobs.

However, those young unemployed job seekers are not the only unemployed figures that are increasing. The “NEETs” who gave up on job searching altogether, or the “SNEPs” who, in addition to being jobless, do not have any interaction with friends, are also increasing rapidly.

The common issue among the NEETs, SNEPs and the underemployed youth (フリーター) who gave up full-time employment and work as part-time employees (非正規社員) is that they “lack hope.” There is an increasing number of youths who have lost hope and feel that “there is no future” at all in terms of jobs and future prospects. The youth have an abundance of valuable resource called time, and thus they should be more prone to feeling a sense of hope about their future. But the fact that the youth are in a situation where they cannot feel hope is, in my opinion, a crisis for Japan's future. What needs to be done, then, is to understand why this lack of hope is spreading in order to build an environment where the youth can build and nurture hope themselves.

2. The Role of Intellectuals, Especially Economists, at a Time of Crisis

One of the goals of the Meridian 180 project is to discuss the “roles of intellectuals at a time of crisis.” This could take place in various forms. For example, one significance of your research is your identification of problems such as NEETs and SNEPs. Before then no one recognized their existence as such. What are the challenges of identifying, conceptualizing, and defining a “crisis” and what role do intellectuals play in resolving it?

When we deal with a crisis, I think it is important to shift its meaning from something that is ambiguous to something that is clear and defined. We need to transform a conceptually incoherent “uncertainty” to a “risk” for which many can share a common understanding. The responsibility of the intellectual is to play a central role in contributing to that transformation.

There are 600,000 NEETs and 1.6 million SNEPs. Although there are many people facing difficulties, nobody recognized their existence until we identified this problem. Unless the problem is recognized, there will be no progress towards its resolution, of course.

When I introduced the concept of NEET, some criticized me that my research will lead to discrimination against, and stereotyping of, those struggling youth. However, if the NEETs or SNEPs are discriminated against because of this categorization, it is not because they are being lazy or entitled. It is because of a social illness. And the role of the intellectual is to scientifically explain this social illness and resolve such misunderstanding.

What is even more terrifying than being misunderstood is being ignored. For those facing a crisis, continuous ignorance of the situation is the real crisis.

Economics and labor economics do not have a direct connection with crises such as the Great Tohoku Earthquake or the nuclear disaster. However, when we face such a major crisis, we need to work together and take an interdisciplinary perspective. How can economics help resolve a crisis like the Great Tohoku Earthquake?

In a time of crisis like the earthquake, economics should first strive to reveal facts. Those facts could become the basis for designing an immediate response, and also for preparing for future crisis.

Many lost their jobs due to the earthquake. When we used the tools of labor economics to conduct a large-scale survey to analyze their circumstances, we found out a few important facts. First, many of those who lost their jobs due to the earthquake were actually the youth, the less educated, and the contract workers. Those who were in unstable employment situations were the first to lose their jobs. On the other hand, many of those who were full-time employees may have suffered some decrease in wages or hours, but they did not lose their jobs. We can explain this using the theory of human capital in labor economics.

There is another important fact. A lot of the people in Fukushima prefecture have been subject to unwarranted discrimination since the nuclear disaster. Some say that Fukushima residents are drinking all the time and playing pachinko (a gambling game) all day and making no effort to look for jobs – they are living off the compensation they received from TEPCO for the disaster. However, when we use the tools of economics to examine their circumstances, we find no evidence that the Fukushima victims are not looking for jobs.

If [the Japanese people] are not informed of these facts, the rumors that Fukushima residents are being lazy and are not seeking employment will spread. Such rumors will [eventually] be the only [“facts”] that will be recorded in history. Social scientists, including economists, must explain that such a rumor is false by introducing objective facts [to the public]. This is our role in a time of crisis.

There are, however, those who claim that intellectuals only talk among themselves, and would not be able to do anything to resolve a crisis. Even if we have an international and/or interdisciplinary discourse, if we cannot bring the results of those discussions into action, are they meaningless?

To be honest, whether you are an intellectual or not, there is not much any one individual could do at a time of major crisis. In fact, by coming up with an unrealistic plan and by forcing that plan into action, we might worsen the situation for those who are already suffering from the crisis.

On the other hand, there is something that each of us can do. For example, in my case, I have visited Kamaishi City – one of the cities that suffered from the tsunami – several times even before the earthquake as part of my research on Hope Studies. Based on this experience, there is something that I am certain of in terms of what the people at the site of the earthquake, including the Kamaishi residents, most strongly hope for after the earthquake. And that is to “not forget.” The victims of the earthquake do not want this to easily become a crisis that has gone by – an event in the past. It is thus our duty to keep [looking after] the people continuing to struggle from the [aftermath of the] crisis.

Now that several years have passed, most of those who did not directly experience the earthquake are increasingly forgetting about it and the nuclear disaster. However, for those victims of the earthquake, the crisis is still present and continuing. This is why I believe that it is my way of “taking action” to continue to disseminate the results of my data analysis and what I learned by speaking with the earthquake victims.

Intellectuals, especially researchers, have the freedom and the duty to follow their interests throughout their lives. By slowly but definitely building on this freedom and duty, I am certain that we can find some suggestions or insights for the future – even if we cannot find an immediate resolution.

In other words, [today's] intellectuals must take to heart the messages sent and actions taken by earlier intellectuals during the various crises that occurred in the past and reintroduce those messages and actions to overcome the current crisis. I think this is also an important role for intellectuals.

In your recent book “SNEP” you mentioned outreach as an important method to help the SNEPs. How should this outreach be done? And how is this different from educating the public, which is generally considered to be one of the activities of an intellectual? Is outreach something that would be effective against other forms of crisis such as the Great Tohoku Earthquake?

Outreach refers to an activity where somebody who has expert information reaches out to those who are in need of medical or welfare care or support but cannot access locations where they could receive such treatment. SNEPs are isolated from their society and have difficulties asking for support. Therefore, to keep them connected to their society, it is important that those who are willing to provide support reach out to them.

When we provide outreach, the most important element is to “not try too hard.” Even if our intention is to support them, people who are in difficult situations may fall into a deeper state of panic if there is a sudden outside intruder. As a result, they might lose their place of escape and begin to hurt themselves or become aggressive against their family members who allowed such intrusion.

This is why we need to take our time and be careful when we conduct outreach. We need to let the outside intruders become part of their lives. I am not sure what it means to “educate” but outreach should not involve trying to force somebody to change or to force your thoughts upon them. That being said, when individuals are trying to take a step forward and to break out of their shells, we must have the tools to identify the opportune moment to stand by their side and to gently encourage them.

There are many who have found refuge in temporary housing, suffering from isolation at the earthquake site. Even those who live in places that did not directly suffer from the earthquake are also suffering from the shock of the disaster and refuse to return to their homes. They also require assistance through outreach.

What does an international and interdisciplinary community like Meridian 180 mean to you? What kind of possibilities does this project propose?

This interview is about the theme of “crisis” right now, but if I was only talking with economists in Japan, I would probably have never thought about this topic so deeply. I think Meridian 180's efforts to discuss universal truths by transcending regional and disciplinary differences make it a very valuable project.

By participating in Meridian 180, experts and intellectuals should be able to recognize the value of the tools they have and improve upon them as well. And this will become an important way of protecting not only themselves, but also their community from the various crises that may arise in the future.

Living in Japan, I feel that all the trust between the U.S., China, Korea, and other regions that our predecessors built is starting to fall apart in various ways. I hope that Meridian 180 will become a movement that will contribute to building a new relationship of trust among intellectuals in the Asia-Pacific region.

3. Beyond Crisis

You led a forum on “How to Bring an End to Crisis.” How do we bring an end to a crisis like the Great Tohoku Earthquake or to a long-term crisis like the NEET or SNEP? What does it mean to bring an end to a crisis?

As of January 2014, there are 2,640 people missing due to the Great Tohoku Earthquake. Until those who are missing return, their families and friends have no way of bringing an end to the crisis. Likewise, there is a possibility that our outreach efforts – however hard we may try – may not successfully help the NEETs and SNEPs. It is possible that even if we reach out to them, we cannot help them recover from their difficulties. In this sense, the fact is there is a possibility that we cannot bring an end to a long-term crisis.

This is not an issue that pertains only to SNEPs. The reasons hikikomori (those who are in reclusion in their homes all the time) have fallen into their current situation are diverse and entangled in an extremely complex way. In addition, just because we can find out why they have become a hikikomori or SNEP does not mean that we have the means to improve their situation. We cannot overturn the crisis that has already occurred in the past, however hard we may try.

That said, if these individuals can understand, in their own way, why they are trapped, then this understanding may open up possibilities for bringing an end to their crisis. Expert knowledge and experience, including outreach activities, might be useful in figuring out why they cannot overcome their difficulties. If we can find out even a little bit more about the reason behind their difficulties, then we might be able to take action, one step at a time – even if we cannot immediately overcome our crisis.

To bring an end to crisis, we must not avert our eyes from the current difficulties and sadness. We need to accept them in our own way as much as we can. Perhaps when we say, “bring an end to crisis,” it is not necessary to overcome crisis, but to find a way to continuously deal with crisis in an effective way.

Professor Genda, you initiated a new field of study called “Hope Studies” and have been researching about “hope” from various perspectives. Could you tell us more about your research on hope, and the relationship between “crisis” and “hope”?

Through my research on hope, I learned that crisis and hope have a very close relationship with each other. Through various surveys, I learned that those who have hope and are moving forward are always those who have experienced some major crisis in the past. They have the confidence that they have somehow overcome their past crises.

This is very different from “dream” which is something that we often juxtapose with hope. Like hope, dreams are also about your desired future. However, compared to hope, dreams tend to arise unconsciously, and are purer. For example, a child's dream might be to become a “soccer player.” There is no special impetus behind this child's dream (including a question of profit or loss). Of course, perhaps there is a part of him that wants to become rich or famous. But in the end, “he wants to become what he wants to become.”

In contrast, hope arises consciously. It was so after the Great Tohoku Earthquake, and the 1995 Kobe Earthquake. People at the site of the earthquake often talked about “hope.” During the 1950s when a lot of people got sick or died due to the Minamata Disease caused by mercury poisoning, those victims did not forget about the word “hope.” Those who experienced crisis and failure are more likely to consciously use the word “hope” when they begin to believe in the future and try to move forward.

In fact, we can plant the seed and nurture hope from the experiences and knowledge gained through overcoming crisis. Crisis, therefore, is the mother of hope.

I would like to ask about your research on Kamaishi City. You have been interested in Kamaishi even before the Tohoku Earthquake. The city was known to be the “hope of the local regions” during the 1960s and 1970s. However, as the steel industry declined, so did the city. Now the population of the city is half of what it used to be, and the economy does not seem to have the momentum it used to have. As such, the city is now symbolic of the “crisis of the local regions.” However, you conducted your studies on hope in Kamaishi City, and found something beyond those crises in this city. Now that the city experienced a new crisis – the Tohoku Earthquake – what kind of suggestions or hope can we find from Kamaishi in terms of “how to overcome crisis?"

In 1857, Kamaishi was the first city in Japan to have a modern steel industry. Since then, Kamaishi experienced many crises that destroyed the city – it experienced two major tsunamis and a bombardment by American warships near the end of the Pacific War. Even after the war, when Japan was experiencing rapid economic growth, the decline in the steel industry caused the city to lose many jobs. So, the city has also experienced economic crisis.

The history of Kamaishi is a history of overcoming crises. In fact, Kamaishi's economy had recovered to an unprecedented level before the earthquake due to the growth of precision machinery and the food manufacturing industry in the city. Now that the city has experienced a new crisis, the earthquake, the people of Kamaishi are now working hard towards their new hope. Their efforts are not something that I can I explain in a few words. I would like to introduce their efforts through Meridian 180 when there is an opportunity to do so.

As I conduct my research in Kamaishi, I found three criteria for revitalizing hope in regions facing crisis. They are 1) reconstructing their local identity (what makes them who they are, their strength), 2) having residents with diverse needs and skills continue to talk amongst themselves to share and spread hope, and 3) never letting go of the possibility of new innovation or collaboration by creating a diverse network both within and outside of the region.

Whether these criteria will serve as a suggestion for “overcoming crisis” in other regions is something that I would like to discuss with Meridian 180 members in the future.